History and science of El Nino, Severe Limitations of IPCC Science El Nino Alone Illustrates Why IPCC Science Is Wrong

History and science of El Nino, Severe Limitations of IPCC Science
El Nino Alone Illustrates Why IPCC Science Is Wrong
By Dr. Tim Ball Monday, March 22, 2010
Figure 1: Sea-level height data of El Nino, red streak at Equator. Source: NASA/JPL Ocean Surface Topography Team

IPCC Reports claim with certainty that increases in global temperature since the 19th century are due to human addition of CO2. There are a multitude of problems with the claim not least the omission or lack of understanding of major temperature altering mechanisms. We are in the middle of an El Nino event, more commonly called El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that is modifying temperatures beyond human effect (Figure 1).

As Happ notes, “The gorilla in the climate change closet is ENSO. Until the mechanism responsible for the fluctuation in tropical temperatures that feeds into global temperatures is described and the resulting contribution to global temperature is quantified we have no hope of quantifying the temperature change that is due to ‘anthropogenic’ causes.”



Global warming advocates made much of the warm temperatures and lack of snow for parts of the recent Winter Olympics in Vancouver. Skeptics pointed to the cold and snow on the east side of the continent. The pattern was created by the waves in the Polar Front separating cold polar air from warm tropical air pushing north on the west side and south on the east side.

El Nino in the Pacific enhanced the situation. Everything about the winter was normal but that is not what alarmists claim.

Historical El Nino
Many incorrectly think El Nino is a new phenomenon resulting from global warming. Scientific awareness and its influence on global climate are new, but people who sailed the Pacific like the Inca knew it well. Spanish sailors knew and named it after the little Christ child because it occurred near Christmas. The opposite pattern, La Nina, means a little girl.

Inca priests went high in the Andes in the spring to study the Pleiades star formation. They used the difference between a clear or shimmering cluster for a rainfall prediction and when to plant potatoes. Atmospheric conditions vary between unstable and stable conditions as the Pacific Ocean switches between El Nino and La Nina. These determine the precipitation pattern Quinn and Neal produced a detailed record of El Nino events from 1522 to 1987 in a publication ironically edited by Raymond Bradley and Phil Jones of CRU notoriety.

Sir Francis Drake was a first class navigator but needed someone who knew the Pacific currents when he rounded Cape Horn in 1579. He captured a Spanish vessel and used the navigator de Moreno to avoid the El Nino currents and reach the west coast of Canada. De Moreno became ill near Oregon and was put ashore to increase his chances of survival. He promptly walked to Mexico and reported his story to Spanish authorities.

Science of El Nino
Early in the 20th century Sir Gilbert Walker produced the first scientific discussions of alternating wind patterns in the Pacific subsequently named the Walker Circulation.

In 1924 he introduced the term Southern Oscillation (SO), which is now used as an Index (SOI) to measure the difference in pressure between Darwin in Australia and Tahiti.

Figure 2 is a schematic of El Nino and La Nina showing the reversal of surface ocean currents that creates alternating warm and cold water on each side of the Pacific. Precipitation patterns are also affected and countries like Australia use ENSO to try and make accurate weather forecasts.

They are forecasting a decline in the current El Nino. Others are not so sure, which underlines the problems with understanding the mechanisms.


Figure 2: La Nina and El Nino Weather Patterns

Surface winds are created by difference in pressure so the air moves from the High pressure to the Low. The SOI measures the oscillating pressure difference as shown in Figure 3.


Figure 3: Graph of recent SOI.

Figure 4 does not include recent data but shows the relationship between the SOI and sea surface temperatures (SST).

Figure 4: Comparison of SOI with SST.

In the 1970s the terms El Nino and Southern Oscillation were combined to ENSO and many attempts to find cycles and mechanisms began. There is a general period of 4 years but this varies from 2 to 7 years. Intensity and location of the events also vary. This is a major stumbling block for computer models. “The ENSO oscillator models produce periodic solutions, whereas ENSO variability in nature is known to be irregular.”

Severe Limitations of IPCC Science
Long-term average latitude of El Nino events on the American side is predominantly in the southern hemisphere with the northern edge affecting northern South America and touching the southwestern USA. Figure 1 shows the current position at the equator, which is slightly north of the long-term average location. A major shift occurred in 1983 when the pattern shifted north and impacted California and brought the phenomenon to world attention. Like all ‘new’ discoveries of natural weather phenomenon it became an explanation for many events, but lack of understanding of the mechanism makes predictions very difficult.

Focus is on pressure, ocean currents and sea surface temperature differences, but these are effects not cause. Something must cause a complete reversal of the general wind patterns for the ocean currents to reverse. There are three major global wind patterns, Polar Easterlies, Mid Latitude Westerlies, and equatorial easterlies. Only the latter disappear or reverse flow and seem to be the mechanism that causes reversals at the surface. The question is what causes the upper level equatorial wind reversals? The IPCC tacitly acknowledge they don’t know in their 2007 Report. “There are also apparent decadal variations in ENSO forecast skill (Balmaseda et al., 1995; Ji et al., 1996; Kirtman and Schopf, 1998), and the sources of these variations are the subject of some debate. Finally, it remains unclear how changes in the mean climate will ultimately affect ENSO predictability (Collins et al., 2002).”

El Nino gets attention, but similar reversals occur in the other oceans most notably the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). They receive little public attention because impacts are less.

The only scientist to make accurate forecasts of ENSO events was the late Dr Theodor Landscheidt. He explains, “My forecast is exclusively based on cycles of solar activity. This does not conform to the dominating trend in official science.” And therein lies a major part of the IPCC failures. As Landscheidt says, “This is irreconcilable with IPCC’s allegation that it is unlikely that natural forcing can explain the warming in the latter half of the 20th century. In declarations for the public, IPCC representatives stress that taxpayer’s money will be used to develop better forecasts of climate change. What about making use of those that already exist, even if this means to acknowledge that anthropogenic climate forcing is not as potent as alleged.” I find no reference to Landscheidt’s work in the IPCC Reports, but then they effectively ignore the sun and many other mechanisms.

If your projections are wrong the science is wrong
The IPCC claimed with 90% certainty that global warming is due to human CO2. Failure to include major mechanisms or effects of ENSO events is just one example of why they are wrong. It also explains why all past, present, and future projections are wrong. If your projections are wrong the science is wrong.