Whatever Happened To The Erupting Iceland Volcano?

Another Computer Model Failure, Mainstream Media lurching from one hysteria, to the next
Whatever Happened To The Erupting Iceland Volcano?
By Dr. Tim Ball Thursday, April 29, 2010
This photo (left) taken on April 27, 2010 shows that the Eyjafjallajokull volcano continues to erupt in Iceland, but the story has fallen off the very small mainstream media tabletop. We need to put in perspective what happened and what it means.

There are two major stories. The first was the information provided by the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) that was used to ground all the flights. They provided maps of the distribution of the ash cloud and made these available on their web site.



The site is still providing information but it is also providing an analysis of the model used to generate the forecasts. This is the Numerical Atmospheric Modelling Environment (NAME) that uses information from their larger Met Office Unified Model (UM). The NAME model was using wind and precipitation data from the UM and those are two of the most unreliable variables in any model. This is frequently a problem, for example, we now know wind and ocean currents explained much of the variation in Arctic Ice attributed solely to temperature. It is clear the models did not work in their prediction of Iceland volcanic dust distribution and the UKMO basically says so, “Throughout the event Met Office scientists compared our forecasts with the observations of volcanic ash. The main conclusion is that the forecasts of ash have been consistent with the observations available at the time. Although, it is important to note that there are limitations in both the forecast model and the observations.”

We knew this already because computer model expert Tim Palmer, leading climate modeler at the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, said; “I don’t want to undermine the IPCC, but the forecasts, especially for regional climate change, are immensely uncertain.” They could also have known the model predictions would fail because the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) failed to determine vertical profiles of aerosols that include volcanic ash because of meteorological conditions.

“Comparisons of in situ measurements against those from global atmospheric models are complicated by differences in meteorological conditions and because in situ measurements are representative of conditions mostly at or near the surface while the direct and indirect RFs depend on the aerosol vertical profile.”

The failed UKMO forecast comes on the heels of previous disastrous summer and winter forecasts. Many have called for closing down the agency.

This will increase those demands especially if, as is expected, the airlines sue the government for the lost revenue caused by groundings based on the model outputs. Of course, as usual, the taxpayer will pay the bill.

Composition of the Atmosphere
The second story is the continued output of the volcano and the implications for long-term atmospheric change. All volcanic activity releases gases especially water vapor and CO2. There are various estimates of the CO2 output but they are only estimates. Willis Eschenbach, in a crude estimate based on outputs from nearby volcanoes, said it was 200,000 tonnes per day. It is a minute fraction of the global total, but a bigger percentage of the human production and the longer the eruption continues the greater the volume. However, the output of volcanic dust is a more important factor.

One of the problems with attempts to determine how much volcanic dust was in the atmosphere from Iceland is we don’t know the normal background levels. Hubert Lamb, founder of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at East Anglia, who would turn in his grave to know what has transpired there, in 1970 created what he called a Dust Veil Index (DVI). “Lamb’s Dust Veil Index (DVI) is a numerical index that quantifies the impact of a particular volcanic eruption’s release of dust and aerosols over the years following the event, especially the impact on the Earth’s energy balance. DVIs have been calculated for eruptions occurring from 1500 through 1983. The methods used to calculate the DVI have been intercalibrated to give a DVI of 1000 for the eruption of Krakatoa in 1883.”

Historical Examples
Global temperatures are currently declining as solar activity declines. A continuation of dust particle injections from the Iceland volcano will add to the cooling, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. This relationship is important because the impact of previous volcanic eruptions varies depending on what the temperature was doing at the time. For example, Laki, which erupted in 1783, was at the beginning of lower temperatures associated with the Dalton Minimum (Figure 2.) Similarly, the eruption of Tambora in 1815 was within the same period and trend. It also shows the projected sunspot numbers for the upcoming two solar cycles.


Figure 2: Sunspot cycle from 1700 with Dalton Minimum and expected levels.
Source: Badalyan, Obridko and Sykora

Figures 3 shows a human response to the effects of the combined cooling of the Dalton Minimum and the eruption of Laki. The vegetable garden at the English country house at Trengwainton, Cornwall was tilted up because of the lack of solar heat. More direct solar rays means greater energy going into the surface. The sign in the corner of the closest bed reads, “These Walls were built C-1820 to provide Early Crops, the unique Sloping Beds obtain the full benefit of the Sun.” This is a region of England where they grow some vegetables year round today.


Figures 3: Trengwainton Gardens Cornwall England.
Source: Tim Ball

A brief examination of climate history shows how much it changes naturally and how those changes are a great influence on nature and human history. The planes may be flying again but the fallout from the eruption is just beginning. The mainstream media direct their telescopes and microscopes and look through the wrong end. They quickly lurch on to the next hysteria leaving the outcome and fallout of previous hysterias unreported.